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  • rmacculloch

Covid-19: was it too early to declare success?

Figure A below shows the cumulative total confirmed cases of Covid since the start of the pandemic in NZ, the US & Europe, adjusted for population size (with log scaling). All regions have now approximately the same number of cases - although over the next few months, expect NZ to accelerate way beyond these other countries, given the current trend.


Meanwhile our weekly death rate from Covid is about 16 per million (= 80/5m). In France it stands at 4 per million (= 259/67m). That is, our weekly death rate is currently 4 times the French level. The total cumulative number of deaths scaled by population size in France is still way more than NZ's - their rate is around 7 times ours (2.2 per thousand in France compared to 0.3 per thousand in NZ) but it used to be hundreds times ours.


The Kiwi comparison with the world & France in terms of death rates are given in Figures B & C. The gaps are closing.


Figure A: Cases per million over time - NZ, US and Europe Compared (log scale)


Figure B: Deaths per million over time - NZ and the World Compared (log scale)


Figure C: Deaths per million over time - NZ, US and Europe Compared (log scale)

Sources:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~Europe~USA


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~OWID_WRL


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~Europe~USA