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  • rmacculloch

The Kiwi Election Result as a Predictor of the US Election

A stunning observation emerged out of the recent landslide victory for the Labour Party in NZ: the election took place on the back of zero cases of community transmission of the virus leading people to overwhelmingly take the view that the government had done a good job in terms of eliminating the bug. Labour successfully framed the contest as the "Covid-19 election". Other concerns melted away. Even though the IMF has published rather dire economic forecasts for the country, the public's focus in terms of voting was primarily on immediate health concerns.

Should the same psychology translate to the US, it's hard to see how on earth the President can find a path to victory for the Republicans. Why? Since the virus is surging in a bunch of swing states, particularly in the mid-West, crucial to a Trump win. Nine states have just reported daily records for new cases. In percentage terms, Wisconsin had the largest increase. In third place was Michigan, which showed a rise of 71 %. In addition, Ohio and Illinois recorded increases above 20 %. The Kiwi experience suggests these statistics will dominate all other concerns, whether one likes it or not.

For sources, see


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