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  • rmacculloch

The Covid Modelers said the upper limit of virus cases would be 1,000. Its 2.5 million and counting.

Back in August last year, when this Covid-19 outbreak had begun (and which has never been eliminated) the Coronavirus modelers hit the headlines in the NZ Herald:

"Expert's worst-case scenario: 1000 cases and weeks in lockdown"

Te Pūnaha Matatini modeller Prof Shaun Hendy said the cluster was clearly reaching towards the upper limit of expectations when it was detected in Auckland nearly a week ago"

... Hendy said a "best-case scenario" could see about 200 cases .. "It's very early to be making estimates because we don't yet know how effective alert level 4 is, but it is possible we could see 1000 cases before we close out this cluster".

Could see 1,000 cases, eh? So what do the Te Pūnaha Matatini modelers say today in the very same NZ Herald?

"Based on what has been seen overseas and on the modelling, around half of the population will have been infected with Covid-19, says Te Pūnaha Matatini contagion modeller Dion O'Neale".

Oh, 2.5 million folks have caught Coronavirus in NZ, based on recent modelling, have they?

Seems that the most accurate forecast back in August last year as to how many people would get infected should have been "anywhere between 0 and 5 million".



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