The NZ Treasury and RBNZ are now both forecasting rising unemployment, a recession next year and inflation way above its 1-3% target throughout 2023. In other words, they're telling Kiwis that stagflation is on the way (a combination of the words "stagnation" & "inflation"). Should one take these forecasts seriously? Of course not.
Why? Lets look at another forecast - one made by Governor Orr a year ago, in 2021. It was featured on this Blog. He told the United States on Bloomberg News, "The fear of the 70s, the 80s, stagflation, it is such a different world [now]".
Oh dear. Turns out today we're living in such a different world that its .. the same old world, complete with the fear of 70-80s stagflation & same old "superpower" frictions.
Words mean what you want them to mean in Alice's-RBNZ-and-NZ-Treasury-Wonderland.