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  • rmacculloch

Did DownToEarth.Kiwi exactly predict the US Election?

Earlier this week, we noted how voters in the NZ election became highly focused on the fact that there were zero cases of community transmission of the virus in the days leading up to voting. That outcome became a crucial factor in determining the Labour Party victory. Based on this experience, we noted that it is "hard to see how on earth the US President can find a path to victory .... Why? Since the virus is surging in a bunch of swing states, particularly in the mid-West, crucial to a Trump win. Nine states have just reported daily records for new cases. In percentage terms, Wisconsin had the largest increase. In third place was Michigan, which showed a rise of 71 %".

It's looking like we may have got it exactly correct. The outcome of the US election has come down to Wisconsin and Michigan. In other words, the political path America is about to take the next four years appears to have been determined by the whims of an unpredictable, microscopic bug. Although many commentators will be quick to say it was about policies, there seems strong evidence that had it not been for the virus being particularly virulent in those two states literally the day before voting, the Republicans would have swept back into the White House. But its still not over until its over.


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