Apr 27
4 min

The Case against the RBNZ and Finance Minister

Today I wrote an Opinion Piece for the NZ Herald which is on the front page of their publication on the web. You can read it below or at this link: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/robert-macculloch-the-case-against-the-reserve-bank-and-the-finance-minister/WANWN3KGNDS5SWES3N2URJZROM/ The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) has a formal objective to keep inflation in the range of 1 to 3 percentage points, as specified by the Remit for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which was s

rmacculloch

Apr 22
4 min

There Is No Kiwi Dream. Only a Dream of Property Ownership.

My regular column in the National Business Review came out yesterday. You can read it here, https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/233924, or below: In 2008, Prime Minister Helen Clark’s Minister of Housing, Maryan Street, gave a speech entitled, “Home ownership - Protecting the Kiwi Dream”. The same theme was picked up by Labour’s leader in 2015, Andrew Little, who is now Minister of Health. At his first annual conference, he promised to restore the Kiwi Dream and defined it as being "a

rmacculloch

Apr 19
2 min

Blaming our Inflation on the Rest of the World may seriously backfire on the PM and Finance Minister

Inflation is running rampant in NZ. "I expect that it will be rising as it is right around the world", says the Finance Minister today. He's wrong to make that assumption. Why should we expect inflation to be rising here like it is in other countries? Since we were meant to be exceptional. We were the country that was the first in the whole world to implement explicit inflation targets. We were the first to have a "Policy Targets Agreement", signed off by the Finance Minister

rmacculloch

Apr 14
2 min

The RBNZ's official cash rate increase will have little effect on inflation

It has been amusing to read the commentators in the mainstream media discuss the Reserve Bank's Official Cash Rate (OCR) rise. They actually think it will have a big effect in terms of quelling inflation (!) The NZ Herald's Business-Editor-At-Large writes how "today's move was a clear signal that the RBNZ is prepared to front load the hikes in an effort to get ahead of the inflation curve". The Herald must be kidding. With inflation expected to shortly rise to around 7 percen

rmacculloch

Apr 12
1 min

Have former PM Key & current PM Ardern's governments smashed the mental health of Kiwi youth?

Trends in Wellbeing in Aotearoa New Zealand: 2000-2020 has been released. Take a read of the following: "The proportion of people aged 15-24 with high or very high levels of psychological distress has increased from 5% in 2011/12 to 19% in 2020/21". What? Nearly one in five of our youth are now highly mentally distressed!? Figure 14 in the report shows that psychological distress increased MOST amongst 15-24 year olds in the 2020-21 year, compared with any other time over the

rmacculloch

Apr 12
2 min

The Reserve Bank on Inequality in the Labour Market

Not much seems to be going on at the Reserve Bank of NZ in terms of research output these days, so when it does publish an article & features it on the website, it makes one curious. Their latest Research Note starts out with a strong statement, "Ethnic minorities experience consistently poor labour market outcomes across countries" (see page 2). Hmmm. So lets take a look "across countries", starting with Malaysia, where there are three main ethnic groups: Malays at around 62

rmacculloch

Apr 11
2 min

(Mindblowing) Stats about NZ's Cost-of-Living Crisis

Our government has been engaged in a misleading media campaign selling the message to Kiwis that our cost-of-living is exceptionally high because of overseas factors. Their narrative is that we're just like other countries & have been affected the same way by global shocks. So how about these mindboggling statistics to put such a claim in perspective: = NZ has one of the highest proportions of electricity generated by renewables - in particular hydro - compared to any country

rmacculloch

Apr 8
2 min

Fact Checking Attorney General Parker

Newshub has reported how David Parker has slammed National Party Finance Spokesperson Nicola Willis for saying his government is responsible for a significant chunk of the high inflation rate in NZ. Parker said, "What the Opposition is trying to do is say this inflation has been caused by the Government & that we can control it in that sense and we can't and it isn't ... It's oil prices, it's disrupted supply chains & this is a thing that is happening all around the world & t

rmacculloch

Apr 6
1 min

Good on Nanaia Mahuta for adopting a Down to Earth Kiwi policy by putting punitive taxes on Russia

Almost a month ago, we wrote a blog advising the Kiwi government to "Tax Russian imports to NZ - don't make them illegal". The reason was that our government was resorting to bans at the time. We pointed out that tariffs would be a better policy since, for example, "the implications of punitively taxing Russian vodka (& other such imports) would be that NZ gains tax revenues, paid for by Russian businesses. We could appropriate money away from Russia's war effort & use it for

rmacculloch

Apr 6
2 min

Professor Baker self-declares NZ's Covid strategy an economic success in the UK Guardian

In an extraordinary article in the UK Guardian, Professor Michael Baker tells British readers, "By most metrics, the NZ Covid-19 response - the initial elimination strategy which has now transitioned to a mitigation strategy - has been one of the most successful in the world". Moreover, in the British Medical Journal in 2020, he wrote that a "key message" of his paper was, "A goal of eliminating community transmission of the pandemic virus causing covid-19 is achievable & sus

rmacculloch

Apr 3
2 min

A trillion dollar scandal, officiated over by the NZ Attorney General

The bi-partisan supported Enabling Housing Supply Act affects a large chunk of the housing stock of NZ, which is valued at around $1.5 trillion, so in terms of impact it's the most far reaching piece of legislation possibly ever passed. The Act allows for 3 townhouses of 3 storeys to be built on almost any urban site without a consent. So you would have expected the NZ Treasury to have conducted its own, independent cost-benefit analysis, right? Wrong. It never did one. So wh

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Robert MacCulloch

rmacculloch1@gmail.com

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