The above headline is surely one to rattle our government, which is probably why it is desperately keen to keep it out of the mainstream media. But shouldn't the Finance Minister come clean and level with the Kiwi public about how we're presently experiencing one of the biggest ever drops in our standard of living? Here's how the sums add up. Wages are growing at less than 4%, whereas inflation is on its way to hitting over 7% on the back of the recent hike in oil prices, imp

Below is my opinion piece for the National Business Review this week, https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/233602: A new style of bureaucrat is being promoted in our capital city. The profile is someone who has “broad experience”, a person with life skills. Expert knowledge is not appreciated any longer. Take, for example, the NZ Treasury. It wants to hire economists who’ve never studied economics. In a recent job advertisement for a "Senior Analyst" who is expected to "operate at the

In a world where we've mostly all become fed up with "communications teams" spinning and "shaping the narrative", our government is taking this "art" to new heights. Take the latest concerns about our high inflation rate & "cost-of-living crisis". What has been Labour's strategy? To brand it an overseas phenomena, beyond the control of local forces. Brand it as being President Putin's fault. Brand it as a Ukrainian problem. Blame Coronavirus. Blame it on everything apart from

Our Parliament has unanimously passed the historic “Russia Sanctions Act" which provides a broad legal framework enabling NZ to impose economic sanctions targeting specific people, as well as companies, assets & services involved with Russia’s aggression. “The Act means we could for example, stop the purchase or sale of property, the movement of ships and planes in NZ’s waters or airspace, stop imports & exports, lending of money, or the movement of money", says the Beehive.

The Kiwi Prime Minister just got jumped into slashing fuel taxes to relieve the "cost-of-living crisis". Within a day of doing so, oil prices fell 6%. Yes, our PM has helped Kiwis pour back to the pump, drive more and release greenhouse gases. Not only that, but her fuel tax cut takes the pressure off oil companies to slash gas prices should the cost of oil fall more. Yes, her price cut has helped big oil make bigger profits and has worsened the environment. Given there's qui

It seems that the primary purpose of the PM's fuel tax cut was for a quick news headline that attracted positive PR. It was driven by perceived good "optics", was done in a panic partly arising from a drop in popularity in the polls and most likely was influenced by her communications team, not competent economic advisers. Why? That fuel tax cut is an ideological disaster for Labour. It is an acknowledgment that, in spite of supposedly putting the environment at the heart of

PM Ardern has just announced the government is cutting the excise tax on fuel as a result of - wait for it - not the "cost-of-living crisis", but instead the cost of "energy crisis". For a government that was meant to stand for the environment, encouraging more petrol consumption and greenhouse gases is something quite extraordinary!? She was reported in Stuff as saying, "Undoubtedly, for many families, there is [crisis]. But I think the most important thing is regardless of

Forecasting anything in economics, let alone, politics is fraught with difficulty. Its a fools game. But that's not going to stop us. Last year, we argued the Kiwi election in 2023 would feature cost-of-living issues, which have only now made it into the mainstream media. This blog also forecast runaway inflation months before the Reserve Bank saw it coming. So we've got a pretty good forecasting record so far. On that note, here goes: 1. NZ's economy will likely slump in 202

Kate McNamara reports in the NZ Herald today that an Official Information Request (OIA) has found that "a specially chosen group of Covid academic commentators were selected for special government briefings earlier in the pandemic because of the likelihood they would be called on by media for comment about government work & announcements". Now I was a "Covid academic commentator" and wrote and spoke about, in particular, the outrageously slow vaccine roll-out in NZ which cost

Below is a link to a radio interview which I did with Christina Huang who's studying for a BA degree at Auckland University. It's called "Unpacking the National Party's Tax Plan". Having had no media training, I'm trying to learn a bit about how to do it, so am starting out with 95bfM "which is an independent radio station located on the University of Auckland campus. We've been broadcasting since 1969, making us NZ's oldest corporate-free broadcaster. We're dedicated to prov

Judged on purely political terms, National Party leader Luxon's recent speech (link below) may have been a success. It appeared mainly aimed at bringing back conservative voters who've been abandoning the party in favor of the likes of ACT. In terms of economics, though, there's little to say about it. Why? There was no vision. No economic strategy. The Nats want tax cuts, though also want less debt, which leaves two ways to finance their cuts. The first would be through grea

"We will provoke the collapse of the Russian economy," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told a local news channel on Tuesday. Economists get highly nervous when French politicians talk of provoking a collapse of an adversary's economy. We get reminded of the Treaty of Versailles & Paris Peace Conference in the aftermath of World War 1, when French politicians agreed with its Allies to punish Germany by imposing massive financial penalties. Sure, the Treaty of Versailles